You can read and watch all the Barron’s, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, CNBC, and WSJ gurus about the SPX going to 1200-1300; I’m here to tell you it’s going to 875 first.

You didn’t want to hear that, did you? You want to believe that the Crime Syndicate in Washington will levitate valuations to 1200 and beyond from the 666 lows of March 6, 2009. Ain’t gonna happen.

You believe that this earnings reporting season will be a blockbuster. You believe what the talking heads with vested interest have been saying. You’ll be wrong.

What do I know with any certainty? How can I say that without skipping a beat on the keyboard? Simple… I trust the Crime Syndicate to generate a headline that will panic even Robert Doll and Blackrock as well as Bill Gross at Pimco.

I trust government and political types about as much as I trust Enron bookkeeping.

Valuation models and guesstimates aside, your politicos will throw Wall Street under the bus one more time (at least) as the ‘takes a village’ crowd revs up their printing press.

We know some things with certainty: governments and politicians lie and lie big, banks lie and lie as big, corporations lie trying to survive in between the aforementioned lies.

Who do you trust? You trust the swiggles, buckles, lurches, and spikes on those stock charts. You trust the money movement as shown to you on the charts as market participants try to discover price. You track that chart and every nuance that you understand about the indicators within.

Believe the money movement before you believe in “change”.