
The above is something for you to think about as we go through the week. Ultimately it is how strong the market reacts, positively or negatively, to the news of the week and the underlying ongoing recent sentiment as to whether we have a trend day or not on these Fib Time Series days. Nevertheless, I have Jan. 8th (jobs report Friday) as a Fib Time series (blue vertical lines) day from the 12/18 low, as well as Jan. 11th off the 12/9 low (red vertical lines). Jan. 11th is the Monday following the jobs report and it is also the first day of Q4 earnings season with AA reporting after the close. The bear in me says a lousy job report (at least not as good as expected) coupled with a bad AA number, and we have a catalyst for a reasonable pullback to take the excess out of the December advance. The bull part of me says a good job report with a good AA number and we then advance to 1200 on SPX. Neither scenario will surprise me, I just need to be ready either way… have a plan, trade the plan. Fibonacci Time Series simply suggest a big move without telling me which direction. Note the big drop on Thursday the 31st, that was a Fib Time Series day from the 12/9 low. It’s a tool with some predictive ability, but I watch it because when other factors line up, we usually get a big move. So it allows me to at least be paying attention on those days, perhaps to have a plan thought out in advance, bullish or bearish, should the market have a trend day. (A “trend day” is one in which the price of a futures contract moves consistently away from the opening range and does not return to the opening range prior to the close.) The strongest trend days appear when there’s synergy between the prerelease bias and subsequent news. The broad market can gap up/down and hold above/below the opening price easily when these two forces work together.
The horizontal lines are Fibonacci retracement levels.
Stock Pullback or Advance with Fibonacci?